Analysts estimate that major states in India will be able to complete Covid-19 vaccination by July 2022. In a May report titled Opportunity cost of sub-optimal vaccine strategy, Emkay analysts estimated that most major states (38 per cent of total population) would be able to cover their eligible 18+ population by February 2022 before the national expected timeline of March 2022.
Densely populated states such as West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh (UP) would mostly have a delayed drive with 18+ and universal population vaccination not before March, the analysts said. At the current pace, UP and Maharashtra would take 15 and 17 months respectively to cover their universal population.
“We reckon it is not easy to estimate state-wide timelines on vaccination, given factors like ability of each state to negotiate with private players, proportion of central support on supply for 45+ age group, number of vaccination sites in each state/district, and varied state health infrastructure,” the report noted.
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